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The Invisible Hand
TLDR
MARKET RECAP → Stocks closed largely flat ahead of tomorrow’s Fed interest rate decision. While the futures market is pricing in a 65% chance of a 0.50% rate cut, a CNBC survey suggests market participants see an 84% chance of just a 0.25% cut. This would be the first rate cut in over four years… so if one thing is for sure, it’s that this will be the only news tomorrow.
CRYPTO SPENDING HITS RECORD IN 2024 ELECTION → Crypto spending hit $190 million in the 2024 election, with the Winklevoss twins leading the charge, donating over $10 million. 💰 The industry aimed to influence crypto-friendly regulations through targeted political contributions.
US RETAIL SALES SURPRISE IN AUGUST → U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.1% in August, defying predictions of a decline. 💡 Strong consumer spending, supported by a resilient labor market, helped keep the economy steady despite inflation concerns.
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TODAY’S TOP NEWS
Crypto Spending Hits Record in 2024 Election
💰 Crypto industry spending surged to $190 million for the 2024 U.S. election, with major donations coming from Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who contributed over $10 million combined.
🏛️ The majority of the funds went to pro-crypto candidates and political action committees, aiming to influence future crypto regulations.
📈 This marks a significant increase from previous election cycles, highlighting the growing political power of the crypto sector as it continues to expand its influence.
TODAY’S TOP NEWS
US Retail Sales Surprise in August
🛍️ U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in August 2024, defying expectations of a 0.2% decline, signaling continued consumer strength despite a challenging economic environment.
💡 Economists had mixed predictions, but a strong labor market, steady wage gains, and higher household wealth helped keep spending resilient, even as inflation cools and interest rates remain elevated.
📉 While the rise in sales indicates economic resilience, concerns linger about falling savings rates and future spending, especially as the Federal Reserve prepares for potential rate cuts.
BULL VS. BEAR
NOTABLE POSTS
Isaac Newton was 23 years old when he invented calculus and discovered gravity
You are 46 years old and stare at charts of dog themed cryptocurrencies all day
— Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. (@ParikPatelCFA)
3:11 PM • Sep 16, 2024
FOR THIS WEDNESDAY
75 BPS CUT = BULLISH
50 BPS CUT = BULLISH
25 BPS CUT = BULLISH
NO CUT = BULLISH
25 BPS HIKE = BULLISH
50 BPS HIKE = BULLISH
75 BPS HIKE = BULLISH
FEW UNDERSTAND THIS
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin)
6:34 PM • Sep 16, 2024
KEEP READING
Fed to cut rates by a quarter point with a soft landing expected, according to CNBC Fed Survey (CNBC)
New details of Trump family crypto project released, including who can buy in (CNBC)
Boeing freezes hiring in sweeping cost cuts as it grapples with factory worker strike (CNBC)
Tech M&A has been thwarted by regulators, but dealmakers skeptical that election will change much (CNBC)
Elon Musk deletes post questioning the Trump assassination attempt (CNN)
A CEO went missing. Then his bank got a mysterious bill for $11 million (CNN)
How Do Interest Rates Affect The Stock Market? (ML)
Is “Spending FOMO” Secretly Sabotaging Your Savings? (ML)
How This 25-Year-Old Built a Six-Figure Creator Business Just One Year After Quitting Her Job (ML)
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Coinmarketcap.com — Crypto market data
Finviz — Financial visualizations
Trading Economics — Economic calendar
CME FedWatch Tool — Market-implied probabilities of future levels of interest rates
Dataroma — Track stock picks and portfolios of legendary value investors such as Warren Buffett
ChatGPT — Large language model-based chatbot powered by generative AI
Vimcal — Lightning-fast calendar and AI scheduling assistant
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